FCNR 2026
Tracking India’s FX risk in a changing world.
An interactive view of how FCNR deposits, RBI forward liabilities and intervention shape India’s reserve buffer — and where it could come under strain.
Thirteen years of building a bigger, more leveraged cushion.
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Reserves have more than doubled since 2013. But since 2024 a growing share of RBI’s defence has run through forwards — the cushion looks bigger than the part that is truly free.
Headline reserves overstate usable firepower.
A simple gross-minus-short-forwards view of the supplied example. This is an analytical proxy, not a measure of immediately available liquidity.
Forward liabilities have grown faster than the reserve cushion. That reduces the part of the buffer that is truly usable — by about a quarter today.
A shock abroad becomes a claim on reserves at home.
Select a node to trace where pressure comes from and where it lands.
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Five things that move the dial.
Illustrative signals behind the sample Red status. Three are internal to RBI’s own book; two are imported.
The sample wall peaks in 2030–31.
Illustrative forward obligations by maturity. These are design-supplied scenarios, not a reported RBI maturity schedule.
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